Market Dynamics in 2025
Georgia’s Forestry Industry Grows Amid Structural and Environmental Challenge
Winter 2025
By John Casey
Citation: Q3 2024 Forisk Research Quarterly (FRQ) Note: As of August 2024
As we kick off 2025, Georgia’s forestry sector is poised at a critical juncture. While facing both economic pressures and the impacts of Hurricane Helene, the state’s forestry industry remains a national leader in lumber production, supported by a blend of geographic advantages, strategic capital investment and policy engagement. Amid anticipated fluctuations in housing and lumber demand, and in the aftermath of a major natural disaster, Georgia’s resilient forestry market exemplifies the broader adaptability required across the U.S. South.
The Housing Market and Demand for Lumber
One notable trend set to shape the forestry market in 2025 is the anticipated upswing in housing construction across the U.S. Following a 5% decline in housing starts in 2024, the market is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, reaching approximately 1.4 million starts. This increase signals a corresponding rise in demand for lumber and related products, potentially fueling production across the state, according to Brooks Mendell, president and CEO of Forisk.“The U.S. South continues to grow as a leader of softwood lumber in North America. In fact, Georgia will maintain its position as the number one producer of softwood lumber in the U.S. South,” said Mendell.
The Housing Market and Demand for Lumber
One notable trend set to shape the forestry market in 2025 is the anticipated upswing in housing construction across the U.S. Following a 5% decline in housing starts in 2024, the market is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, reaching approximately 1.4 million starts. This increase signals a corresponding rise in demand for lumber and related products, potentially fueling production across the state, according to Brooks Mendell, president and CEO of Forisk.“The U.S. South continues to grow as a leader of softwood lumber in North America. In fact, Georgia will maintain its position as the number one producer of softwood lumber in the U.S. South,” said Mendell.
Georgia holds an advantage within the South’s consolidated forestry market, producing nearly 4 billion board feet annually, or over 15% of the southern region’s output. This places the state in a unique position to meet the rising demand generated by the housing sector’s resurgence.
Structural Shifts in Lumber Production
Despite reports of mill closures, the true story of Georgia’s production capacity is one of strategic adaptation. According to Mendell, these closures often stem from the forestry sector’s investment in more efficient, high-capacity facilities, gradually retiring outdated infrastructure.
“We suffer from recency bias,” said Mendell, highlighting the tendency to focus on closure headlines without recognizing the growth in capital investments across newer mills. "There’s a lot of attention on the mills that close, but there’s significant ongoing investment into more efficient facilities, which are better for the companies and for the communities they support.
”These ongoing investments are fortifying Georgia’s position in the lumber industry. Despite the occasional shuttering of older facilities, the forestry sector’s strategic consolidation and efficiency improvements have enabled the state to not only maintain production levels but potentially increase them. Projections suggest that Southern lumber production could reach 25 billion board feet within the next few years — a historic milestone that underscores the U.S. South’s emergence as the continent’s softwood powerhouse
Structural Shifts in Lumber Production
Despite reports of mill closures, the true story of Georgia’s production capacity is one of strategic adaptation. According to Mendell, these closures often stem from the forestry sector’s investment in more efficient, high-capacity facilities, gradually retiring outdated infrastructure.
“We suffer from recency bias,” said Mendell, highlighting the tendency to focus on closure headlines without recognizing the growth in capital investments across newer mills. "There’s a lot of attention on the mills that close, but there’s significant ongoing investment into more efficient facilities, which are better for the companies and for the communities they support.
”These ongoing investments are fortifying Georgia’s position in the lumber industry. Despite the occasional shuttering of older facilities, the forestry sector’s strategic consolidation and efficiency improvements have enabled the state to not only maintain production levels but potentially increase them. Projections suggest that Southern lumber production could reach 25 billion board feet within the next few years — a historic milestone that underscores the U.S. South’s emergence as the continent’s softwood powerhouse
Supply Chain Pressures and Workforce Dynamics
Georgia’s forestry sector is not without its challenges. One of the most pressing issues is a resilient supply chain, especially in the context of logging and transportation. Over the past three years, the U.S. South has experienced a 5% reduction in logging employment, a trend exacerbated in Georgia, where the workforce has fallen by 9%. This decline in capacity poses a direct threat to the industry’s supply chain efficiency. “In Georgia, we’ve felt a disproportionate amount of pain on our logging capacity,” said Mendell, emphasizing the effects of workforce reductions.As Nick DiLuzio, vice president of business development at Forisk, notes, “It’s important to take care of our loggers and haulers,” highlighting the value of sustaining Georgia’s logging workforce, particularly as many loggers cross state lines from neighboring Alabama and Florida to help meet demand.
Environmental Impact: Hurricane Helene’s Aftermath
Natural events have also reshaped the forestry market, with Hurricane Helene serving as a stark reminder of the environmental volatility that can impact timber supply.The storm brought nearly a year’s worth of wood supply into Georgia’s market within a matter of days, significantly influencing short-term market dynamics. According to Mendell, the Georgia Forestry Commission’s “incredibly helpful and responsive”actions in aiding affected areas underscored the resilience of Georgia’s response.
According to DiLuzio, mills within the hurricane’s path experienced only temporary disruptions, largely due to power outages. “The mills in the storm’s path were down mostly because of utility issues, not damage,” said DiLuzio, adding that this limited downtime allowed operations to resume quickly in most areas. In the wake of the storm, mills have been stockpiling salvage wood taking advantage of its current availability. However, this sudden influx raises questions about longer-term supply, as it could take years for the storm-damaged timber to be fully replenished.
Strategic Policy and Truck Weight Legislation
One of the most pressing legislative issues on the industry’s agenda is truck weight limits, which directly affect forestry logistics. These regulations are central to the transportation of timber from logging sites to mills. Maintaining current allowable gross vehicle weights is essential to both operation efficiencies and economic benefits for Georgia’s forestry sector. “Truck weights... it’s literally where the rubber meets the road,” said DiLuzio, underscoring the critical role of these policies in optimizing supply chain dynamics.
As Georgia’s forestry stakeholders work to address ongoing challenges in infrastructure and transportation, legislation that maintains current allowable truck capacity limits will serve as essential for sustaining market growth.
An Industry in Transition
Georgia’s forestry industry exemplifies resilience and adaptability in the face of economic and environmental uncertainties. With a balanced approach to investment, a focus on workforce support and strategic engagement in policy, the state is well-equipped to navigate the evolving landscape of the forestry sector. “Just appreciate being in Georgia. We have a really good state to be a forest owner or a manufacturer,” said Mendell. “Well positioned... with broad support across the executive and legislative branches. ”As the industry contends with shifting market demands, environmental pressures and legislative changes, Georgia’s forestry sector stands as a testament to the power of strategic foresight and structural adaptation. The year ahead promises both challenges and opportunities for Georgia’s forestry sector — a dynamic that will undoubtedly shape its future for years to come. ■
John Casey is a strategic communications professional who supports clients through the art of storytelling. In his downtime, John can be found hunting and fishing on his family’s centennial farm in Northwest Georgia.
Georgia’s forestry sector is not without its challenges. One of the most pressing issues is a resilient supply chain, especially in the context of logging and transportation. Over the past three years, the U.S. South has experienced a 5% reduction in logging employment, a trend exacerbated in Georgia, where the workforce has fallen by 9%. This decline in capacity poses a direct threat to the industry’s supply chain efficiency. “In Georgia, we’ve felt a disproportionate amount of pain on our logging capacity,” said Mendell, emphasizing the effects of workforce reductions.As Nick DiLuzio, vice president of business development at Forisk, notes, “It’s important to take care of our loggers and haulers,” highlighting the value of sustaining Georgia’s logging workforce, particularly as many loggers cross state lines from neighboring Alabama and Florida to help meet demand.
Environmental Impact: Hurricane Helene’s Aftermath
Natural events have also reshaped the forestry market, with Hurricane Helene serving as a stark reminder of the environmental volatility that can impact timber supply.The storm brought nearly a year’s worth of wood supply into Georgia’s market within a matter of days, significantly influencing short-term market dynamics. According to Mendell, the Georgia Forestry Commission’s “incredibly helpful and responsive”actions in aiding affected areas underscored the resilience of Georgia’s response.
According to DiLuzio, mills within the hurricane’s path experienced only temporary disruptions, largely due to power outages. “The mills in the storm’s path were down mostly because of utility issues, not damage,” said DiLuzio, adding that this limited downtime allowed operations to resume quickly in most areas. In the wake of the storm, mills have been stockpiling salvage wood taking advantage of its current availability. However, this sudden influx raises questions about longer-term supply, as it could take years for the storm-damaged timber to be fully replenished.
Strategic Policy and Truck Weight Legislation
One of the most pressing legislative issues on the industry’s agenda is truck weight limits, which directly affect forestry logistics. These regulations are central to the transportation of timber from logging sites to mills. Maintaining current allowable gross vehicle weights is essential to both operation efficiencies and economic benefits for Georgia’s forestry sector. “Truck weights... it’s literally where the rubber meets the road,” said DiLuzio, underscoring the critical role of these policies in optimizing supply chain dynamics.
As Georgia’s forestry stakeholders work to address ongoing challenges in infrastructure and transportation, legislation that maintains current allowable truck capacity limits will serve as essential for sustaining market growth.
An Industry in Transition
Georgia’s forestry industry exemplifies resilience and adaptability in the face of economic and environmental uncertainties. With a balanced approach to investment, a focus on workforce support and strategic engagement in policy, the state is well-equipped to navigate the evolving landscape of the forestry sector. “Just appreciate being in Georgia. We have a really good state to be a forest owner or a manufacturer,” said Mendell. “Well positioned... with broad support across the executive and legislative branches. ”As the industry contends with shifting market demands, environmental pressures and legislative changes, Georgia’s forestry sector stands as a testament to the power of strategic foresight and structural adaptation. The year ahead promises both challenges and opportunities for Georgia’s forestry sector — a dynamic that will undoubtedly shape its future for years to come. ■
John Casey is a strategic communications professional who supports clients through the art of storytelling. In his downtime, John can be found hunting and fishing on his family’s centennial farm in Northwest Georgia.
|
Georgia Forestry Magazine is published by HL Strategy, an integrated marketing and communications firm focused on our nation's biggest challenges and opportunities. Learn more at hlstrategy.com
|
|
|