ResilienceinTransition
One Year After Hurricane Helene,Timber Markets Face Additional Challenges
Fall 2025
By John Casey
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The storm passed in a day, but the aftershocks to Georgia’s forest products market are still rippling a year later.
On September 26, 2024, Hurricane Helene carved
through South Georgia with devastating force, toppling sawtimber-class trees across hundreds of thousands of acres. It was, by all accounts, one of the most destructive storms to hit Georgia in recorded state history -- particularly for its forests, with a $1.28 billion total timber resource impact.
Many expected the storm’s impact would be the top story for Georgia’s forestry sector for years to come.
But nearly a year later, experts say the most consequential changes have come not from the storm itself, but from broader market disruptions that followed -- most notably, the closure of three major pulp and paper mills.
“I think it’s safe for us to say that, a year out from the storm, the hurricane’s direct impacts were not significant to the market — but other market impacts are influencing where prices are headed now,” said Dr. Bruno Kanieski da
Silva, a finance professor at the University of Georgia’s Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources.
On September 26, 2024, Hurricane Helene carved
through South Georgia with devastating force, toppling sawtimber-class trees across hundreds of thousands of acres. It was, by all accounts, one of the most destructive storms to hit Georgia in recorded state history -- particularly for its forests, with a $1.28 billion total timber resource impact.
Many expected the storm’s impact would be the top story for Georgia’s forestry sector for years to come.
But nearly a year later, experts say the most consequential changes have come not from the storm itself, but from broader market disruptions that followed -- most notably, the closure of three major pulp and paper mills.
“I think it’s safe for us to say that, a year out from the storm, the hurricane’s direct impacts were not significant to the market — but other market impacts are influencing where prices are headed now,” said Dr. Bruno Kanieski da
Silva, a finance professor at the University of Georgia’s Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources.
SHIFTING TERRAIN:
Market Volatility and Structural Shocks
The closures of International Paper’s Savannah and Riceboro facilities and Georgia-Pacific’s Cedar Springs mill removed more than 8 million tons of
annual fiber demand from the market. The compounding effect on an already stressed supply chain was swift and profound.
“Cedar Springs was a massive shot across the bow,” said Derek Dougherty, president of Dougherty & Dougherty Forestry Services. “It’s enough to wake
landowners up to the reality that they have to do something different.”
According to ResourceWise Senior Consultant Jeremy Kessinger, pine pulpwood prices dropped significantly
following the storm — and while they’ve since rebounded somewhat, they remain below pre-impact levels. With closures now pressing on markets, uncertainty is growing.
“Mills and landowners are still facing headwinds,” Kessinger said. “And when a pulp mill closes, there is no short-term
replacement.”
Salvage efforts in the wake of Hurricane Helene helped, but didn’t stabilize the market.
“We tried to get as much of it as we could,” Dougherty said. “But when you’re in a procurement area with limited markets and you’ve lost capacity, it doesn’t matter how many trucks you load. You can’t salvage your way out of that.”
While salvage created temporary stress in the hardest-hit counties, Kessinger noted the statewide market effects were
muted.
“The geographic impact was narrow enough that market-level pricing effects were limited beyond those areas,” said
Kanieski da Silva.
Market Volatility and Structural Shocks
The closures of International Paper’s Savannah and Riceboro facilities and Georgia-Pacific’s Cedar Springs mill removed more than 8 million tons of
annual fiber demand from the market. The compounding effect on an already stressed supply chain was swift and profound.
“Cedar Springs was a massive shot across the bow,” said Derek Dougherty, president of Dougherty & Dougherty Forestry Services. “It’s enough to wake
landowners up to the reality that they have to do something different.”
According to ResourceWise Senior Consultant Jeremy Kessinger, pine pulpwood prices dropped significantly
following the storm — and while they’ve since rebounded somewhat, they remain below pre-impact levels. With closures now pressing on markets, uncertainty is growing.
“Mills and landowners are still facing headwinds,” Kessinger said. “And when a pulp mill closes, there is no short-term
replacement.”
Salvage efforts in the wake of Hurricane Helene helped, but didn’t stabilize the market.
“We tried to get as much of it as we could,” Dougherty said. “But when you’re in a procurement area with limited markets and you’ve lost capacity, it doesn’t matter how many trucks you load. You can’t salvage your way out of that.”
While salvage created temporary stress in the hardest-hit counties, Kessinger noted the statewide market effects were
muted.
“The geographic impact was narrow enough that market-level pricing effects were limited beyond those areas,” said
Kanieski da Silva.
Landowner Strategy in a Changing Market
The disruption has pushed landowners to rethink their planting and management decisions.
“People who were planting 605 trees to the acre are now moving to 360 or 380,” Dougherty said. “You’re trying to get a bigger tree, with more sawtimber potential, sooner. That’s the shift. That’s the hedge.”
But he warns: this strategy only works with investment in genetics and early management. “You can’t cut out pulp without putting something better in.”
The risk calculus has changed, particularly for those in pulp-dependent geographies.
“We’ve lost significant pulp markets over just a few years,” Dougherty said. “You don’t recover from that without rethinking what you’re trying to produce.”
Some landowners are moving toward alternative revenue streams.
“We’re seeing more people look at recreation — hunting, glamping, short-term rentals,” Dougherty said. “That’s not a
fallback. That’s a way to diversify income and keep land in working forests.”
This trend isn’t limited to tourism. ATV trails, wildlife enhancement, even conservation easements are increasingly part of the mix.
“If we want working forests to stay intact, we’ve got to make them work for the landowner,” Dougherty said. “And
that might mean making them work in new ways.”
Competitive Pressure and Procurement Geography
Market consolidation and mill closures have also reshaped procurement zones.
“You might’ve had five mills drawing from a region — now you have one,” Dougherty said. “Haul distance becomes
a huge factor. That’s when markets start breaking down.”
In Kessinger’s view, this pressure could influence long-term mill investment strategy.
“If Helene created drastic impacts in the future, this would certainly impact how sawmills in those areas may look
at future capital expenditures and longterm viability of sites,” said Kessinger.
The disruption has pushed landowners to rethink their planting and management decisions.
“People who were planting 605 trees to the acre are now moving to 360 or 380,” Dougherty said. “You’re trying to get a bigger tree, with more sawtimber potential, sooner. That’s the shift. That’s the hedge.”
But he warns: this strategy only works with investment in genetics and early management. “You can’t cut out pulp without putting something better in.”
The risk calculus has changed, particularly for those in pulp-dependent geographies.
“We’ve lost significant pulp markets over just a few years,” Dougherty said. “You don’t recover from that without rethinking what you’re trying to produce.”
Some landowners are moving toward alternative revenue streams.
“We’re seeing more people look at recreation — hunting, glamping, short-term rentals,” Dougherty said. “That’s not a
fallback. That’s a way to diversify income and keep land in working forests.”
This trend isn’t limited to tourism. ATV trails, wildlife enhancement, even conservation easements are increasingly part of the mix.
“If we want working forests to stay intact, we’ve got to make them work for the landowner,” Dougherty said. “And
that might mean making them work in new ways.”
Competitive Pressure and Procurement Geography
Market consolidation and mill closures have also reshaped procurement zones.
“You might’ve had five mills drawing from a region — now you have one,” Dougherty said. “Haul distance becomes
a huge factor. That’s when markets start breaking down.”
In Kessinger’s view, this pressure could influence long-term mill investment strategy.
“If Helene created drastic impacts in the future, this would certainly impact how sawmills in those areas may look
at future capital expenditures and longterm viability of sites,” said Kessinger.
A Broader Southern Pattern
Georgia’s recovery trajectory is aligned with other Southeastern states that have seen similar structural losses.
“North Carolina, South Carolina, Northeast Florida are all dealing with
the same realities,” said Kessinger. “Downward stumpage trends, reduced
fiber consumption, and concern over long-term logging capacity.”
What makes Georgia different, Kanieski said, is its underlying strength.
“We still have deep markets, and that matters,” said Kanieski. “But when you
lose this kind of capacity, even strong markets feel the squeeze.”
Where We’re Headed
Hurricane Helene was a devastating event. But in many ways, it was only
the spark. The structural questions it unearthed — about markets, supply chain resilience and land management — will shape Georgia’s forestry economy for years to come.
“Landowners are having to be more strategic,” Dougherty said. “They’re
asking better questions about what kind of forest they want and how they’re going to get there.”
Kessinger believes the path forward must be data-driven and diversified.
“We’ve got to make decisions with the best market information available, and we’ve got to be open to new opportunities,” he said.
The work ahead won’t be easy. But if Georgia’s forestry sector has shown anything, it’s that resilience isn’t just about recovery — it’s about adaptation
and innovation. ■
John Casey is a strategic communications professional who supports clients through the art of storytelling. In his downtime, John can be found hunting and fishing on his family’s centennial farm in Northwest Georgia.
Georgia’s recovery trajectory is aligned with other Southeastern states that have seen similar structural losses.
“North Carolina, South Carolina, Northeast Florida are all dealing with
the same realities,” said Kessinger. “Downward stumpage trends, reduced
fiber consumption, and concern over long-term logging capacity.”
What makes Georgia different, Kanieski said, is its underlying strength.
“We still have deep markets, and that matters,” said Kanieski. “But when you
lose this kind of capacity, even strong markets feel the squeeze.”
Where We’re Headed
Hurricane Helene was a devastating event. But in many ways, it was only
the spark. The structural questions it unearthed — about markets, supply chain resilience and land management — will shape Georgia’s forestry economy for years to come.
“Landowners are having to be more strategic,” Dougherty said. “They’re
asking better questions about what kind of forest they want and how they’re going to get there.”
Kessinger believes the path forward must be data-driven and diversified.
“We’ve got to make decisions with the best market information available, and we’ve got to be open to new opportunities,” he said.
The work ahead won’t be easy. But if Georgia’s forestry sector has shown anything, it’s that resilience isn’t just about recovery — it’s about adaptation
and innovation. ■
John Casey is a strategic communications professional who supports clients through the art of storytelling. In his downtime, John can be found hunting and fishing on his family’s centennial farm in Northwest Georgia.
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Georgia Forestry Magazine is published by HL Strategy, an integrated marketing and communications firm focused on our nation's biggest challenges and opportunities. Learn more at hlstrategy.com
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